It's Breeders' Cup Day!
There are plenty of Hastings' backstretch 'faces' at Del Mar this week and we've managed to snag a few pictures for you to peruse while you run the rule over the Breeders' Cup picks
Hastings’ Fans are Sweet on Sugar
Race 1 – 10:05 a.m. $150,000 Allowance Optional Claimer, 8½ furlongs (turf)
The first of the day is an optional allowance contest carrying a nice $150,000 purse and going a mile and a sixteenth on the Jimmy Durante Turf course. I am going to take a shot on the #7 INVIGORATED with Irad Ortiz in the saddle for Mike McCarthy. He broke his maiden in his debut earlier this year before resurfacing on the undercard of Kentucky Derby day at Churchill in an Allowance — where he blew the start and obviously injured himself at some point and was never in the race. He has been given ample time off and shows up in a turf race which, I think, will be a good move as his dam Cambiocorsa was a sensational turf runner. Hronis Racing purchased #6 CANADA GATE from Juddmonte after his maiden score and moved him to the John Sadler barn. He has speed and gets Flavien Prat in the irons, so I will put him in the second spot as he also makes his turf debut. If the top two don’t handle the sod then #11 LAHAINA FLAVOR could be the one, as he comes into this tougher test with an impressive victory in his first try in blinkers for trainer Paddy Gallagher who has summoned Frankie Dettori to ride — Mike Heads
Mike's Picks - 7,6,11
Looking for Longshots:
It might be worth taking a chance on SPYCATCHER (Morning Line 12-1), who would eat most of these for breakfast if able to conjure something similar to his sophomore campaign, when he was second in both the Del Mar (G2) and Hollywood (G1) Derbies. He ran just once the following season, however, and only reappeared in August this year after missing almost 12 months. He finally broke his maiden in September at Santa Anita and, while probably not the force of yore, he will hopefully prove the old adage of form being temporary, while class is permanent — Nigel Reid
Race 2 – 10:40 a.m. $200,000 Bayakoa Stakes, 1 mile (dirt)
The second race is the $200,000 Grade 3 Bayakoa Stakes for fillies and mares going a mile on the main track. Nothing clever here as I’m on the heavily favoured filly #3 HOPE ROAD, who has made short work of her competition since arriving in the Bob Baffert barn earlier this year. The water is deeper today, as she faces older mares, but there isn’t anything too outstanding in the lineup so I like her to prevail at a short price. The #4 ALPHA BELLA was moved to the dirt by John Sadler in her first run on the west coast where she made the lead through dawdling fractions and stayed on to be second. She appears to be the next best option. Bob Baffert saddles another three year old filly #7 SHOW CARD, who is a Juddmonte homebred by Into Mischief that has beaten up on some inferior foes in her last two Stakes wins and it will be interesting to see how she stacks up against the top two — MH
Mike's Picks - 3,4,7
Looking for Longshots:
Longshot contenders are thin on the ground here. However, SADDLE UP JESSIE (15-1) rarely runs a poor race and has hit the board in all four of her most recent efforts. She’s had plenty of racing, but lines-up on the back of a short six-week break and, while unlikely to be good enough to beat the favourite, could easily run into a place at a big price — NR
Hastings at the Breeders’ Cup!
Race 3 – 11:15 a.m. $300,000 Goldikova Stakes, 1 mile (turf)
The third on the program is the $300,000 Goldikova Stakes for fillies and mares at a mile on the grass. There are many chances in this competitive affair and I chose the ultra-consistent #2 SACRED WISH, who hasn’t run a bad race this season and I feel is pretty much guaranteed to get a nice trip under Paco Lopez from her inside post. She has good early speed and should be in a perfect striking position when they turn for home. The two Euro shippers are not well drawn for this one mile race, which is why I tried to beat them. I put the #9 KATHMANDU (IRE) in the second spot. Hollie Doyle is in the irons and she will likely have her near the lead and, considering she just missed in a Group 1 earlier this year, she is the class of the field, although will still need some good fortune to win this easier race. The #10 RAQIYA (IRE) just won a Group 3 via disqualification in her most recent race in July and deserves respect. The Shadwell homebred will be ridden by Frankie Dettori — MH
Mike's Picks - 2,9,10
Looking for Longshots:
Both FLUFFY SOCKS (10-1) and MOUFFY (10-1) hold some appeal in what looks a very tough race to decipher. FLUFFY SOCKS was doing her best work late in last month’s G1 First Lady Stakes at Keeneland, running on well to snatch third after being tight in against the rail down the lane. She’s hit the board in all three of her Del Mar starts, including a head-bobbing second in last December’s G1 Matriarch. MOUFFY, meanwhile, narrowly held off the late-challenge of NADETTE to take the G2 Dance Smartly at Woodbine in October and, like Fluffy Socks, was doing her best work late — NR
Race 4 – 12:00 p.m. $1 million Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, 7 furlongs (dirt)
The fourth is the first Breeders Cup race of the day, the $1 million Filly and Mare Sprint at seven furlongs on the main course. I’m giving a slight edge to the #6 SOCIETY, who appears to be the controlling speed under Tyler Gafflione, and is fresh as she’s only making her third start of the year for trainer Steve Asmussen. Her two prep races have been excellent and I believe this is a perfect spot for her to shine. Klaravich Stables’ homebred WAYS AND MEANS will be right close to my top pick throughout, which gives her a great shot. She’s sporting a three-race winning streak, including a big win the G1 Test against three-year-old fillies, then followed that up with a public workout in a very easy G2 in her first stakes try with older mares. Flavien Prat will ride again for trainer Chad Brown. Juddmonte Farms Tapit filly #10 SCYLLA is the upset horse in this dash for veterans Bill Mott and Mike Smith. She has the ability and, if the top two hook up early, then she could be a threat in the deep stretch — MH
Mike’s Picks - 6,9,10
Looking for Longshots:
With three of her four wins coming at Del Mar, the lightly-raced ONE MAGIC PHILLY (10-1) is rapidly gaining local hero status. She upset the 1-9 favourite Sweet Azteca to land last month’s G3 Chillingwell Stakes at Santa Anita, looks to have improvement to come and she can give a besieged home team something to root for — NR
Race 5 – 12:41 p.m. $1 million Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, 5 furlongs (turf)
The fifth race is the $1 million Turf Sprint for three-year-olds and up, going five furlongs. If the turf course is playing fair I really like #6 STAR OF MYSTERY (GB) who has been kept stateside prepping for this race for trainer Charles Appleby and he has turned in three winning efforts, although only able to secure one victory. Bill Buick returns to the saddle and I think the pace will be contested, which gives him a big chance. The #9 COGBURN is the one to catch as he possesses blazing early speed and huge Beyer numbers in his last three sprints. The #1 BELIEVING (IRE) is a stranger that I think has a chance to hit the board at a big price. He hasn’t been missing by much in his last four starts but could get a better trip than some of the same rivals that he has been barely losing to across the pond — MH
Mike’s Picks - 6,9,1
Looking for Longshots:
Plenty of long-odds runners here with big chances and none more so than BIG INVASION (20-1), who was an unlucky second in this race 12 months ago and has Frankie Dettori in the saddle today. He went off the boil at the beginning of the current campaign but has shown signs of coming back to his best of late. He finished with a trademark late run to snatch the Harvey Pack Stakes at Saratoga in September, before moving out west to finish fourth in the G2 Eddie D at Santa Anita later the same month. He’ll need gaps to open for him but should be rattling along late when the whips start flying — NR
Race 6 – 1:21 p.m. $2 million Breeders’ Cup Distaff, 9 furlongs (dirt)
The sixth of the afternoon is the $2 million Distaff for fillies and mares at a mile- and-an-eighth on the dirt. One has to admire the amazing season that the #2 THORPEDO ANNA has had and if she has one more top performance in her then she doesn’t get beat. This isn’t the toughest renewal of the Distaff and, without much pace presence, THORPEDO ANNA should find herself on a very sensible pace which will make her virtually impossible to outrun if her A-race shows up. She is the day’s best bet. The best closer is #6 RAGING SEA who enters the Distaff off of a narrow win in the Grade 2 Beldame at Aqueduct. She has 7 wins from 12 starts and Flavien Prat has been aboard for 6 of those wins and he returns to the saddle for top trainer Chad Brown. The California mares haven’t been the strongest but the local Hastings community should be rooting for #5 SUGAR FISH, who won the G2 Zenyatta Stakes at Santa Anita in her last start and is out of former Hastings Stakes star Madeira Park and bred by local owner George Gilbert. Sometimes sentimental wagers win and what a win it would be — MH
NOTE: #3 BATUCADA and #8 MISS NEW YORK are scratched.
Mike’s Picks - 2,6,5
Looking for Longshots:
Finding a longshot to beat THORPEDO ANNA may be little more than a straw-clutching exercise but on we shall press with CANDIED (15-1), who has missed the frame just once in eight career starts. She was well beaten by Thorpedo Anna back in July, then franked the form when narrowly losing to Power Squeeze in the G1 Alabama the following month. Given August off, she reappeared in last month’s G1 Spinster and was third behind the brilliant Idiomatic. Her morning line odds probably won’t hold but she should still represent value — NR
Race 7 – 2:01 p.m. $5 million Breeders’ Cup Turf, 12 furlongs (turf)
The seventh race is the $5 million Breeders Cup Turf for three year olds and up going a mile and a half. I like the world traveller #11 REBELS ROMANCE who has more stamps on his passport than any runners participating this weekend. He began his arduous campaign last December in England with stops in Qatar, Dubai, Hong Kong then back to England, Germany and now Cailfornia, a daunting task for most but just another day at the office for a pro like him. He doesn’t seem to have many ‘off days' winning 14 of 21 lifetime so I expect another Group 1 type run from him which should lead to his 15th trip to the winners circle for the tough Buick-Appleby duo. The #3 SHAHRYAR wasn’t disgraced the Dubai Classic in March when finishing second behind my top pick and his third behind AUGUSTE RODIN in last year’s Breeders Cup Turf was excellent. He’s a player. The # 4 LUXEMBOURG will be a pace factor and while he lacks consistency his class cannot be disputed. The connections are top notch, Coolmore group owning and the Aidan O'Brien Ryan Moore tandem have won a lot top class races. If the pace scenario is kind then he could lead them for a long ways — MH
Mike’s Picks 11,3,4
Looking for Longshots:
Fourth in this event 12 months ago, GOLD PHOENIX (IRE) (15-1) is a four-time winner at Del Mar and will not lose through a lack of familiarity to his surroundings. He’s had a lighter campaign this season but looks to be reaching peak at the right time and he did win the G2 Del Mar Handicap over a mile-and-three eighths in August. Few horses from the powerful O’Brien team can be described as ‘longshots’, making the 15-1 morning line on WINGSPAN (IRE) look extremely tempting. She’s a filly against boys and is a three-year-old to boot. However, she seems to be improving rapidly, will have no worries about the distance and was impressive when second at Ascot last time where, doing most of the dirty work up front, kept on gamely once passed — NR
Race 8 – 2:41 p.m. $7 million Breeders’ Cup Classic, 10 furlongs (dirt)
The eighth of the day is the $7 million Classic for three-and-up at a mile-and-a- quarter on the main track. This is a rare handicapping test for the Classic as this race never features three Japan entrants and a three time G1 on grass as part of the puzzle; making this year’s running unique and, perhaps, the way Breeders’ Cup racing is heading into the future. I have no strong idea of who will win but I’m willing to take a shot on the marathon star #14 NEXT. He’s won seven in a row by a combined 91 lengths and I know the 1¼-mile will be a breeze for him. He has enough tactical speed to be in a perfect striking position in the clear on the outside and we will see if he’s good enough. The #3 CITY OF TROY is the morning line favourite and obviously had a ton of talent on the turf, winning three consecutive G1 races in England, but he’s on dirt for the first time here and taking him at a short price might be a little risky, even though the high profile connections (Coolmore, Aidan O'Brien and Ryan Moore) are high on him. He looks to be a speed horse and the front could be crowded, with #9 FIERCENESS and #12 ARTHUR'S RIDE in the lineup. I will throw in the #2 HIGHLAND FALLS for third, he has good connections and is in top form — MH
Mike’s Picks - 14,3,2
Looking for Longshots:
TAPIT TRICE (30-1) didn’t reappear until July this year but showed he had lost little during the lay-off by taking the G3 Monmouth Cup on his first start. More latterly, he overcame a moderate ride on a very wet track to catch and pass the odds-on favourite and take the G2 Woodward at Saratoga. He’s already won more than $1.7 million but somehow has the feel of a horse yet to fully realize his potential. A win here would change all that — NR
Race 9 – 3:25 p.m. $2 million Breeders Cup’ Filly & Mare Turf, 11 furlongs (turf)
The ninth race is the $2 million Filly and Mare Turf at a mile and three-eighths. I have a good feeling about the #3 CINDERELLA'S DREAM (GB), who has breezed by her American rivals in both of her races since arriving from England, signalling that she is special one for Charles Appleby and Bill Buick. The other one that interested me is the #7 CONTENT (IRE), who has had her form muddied a bit by finishing well beaten 10th and 11th in her last two starts. However, both were on extremely soft turf courses, so she could rebound on a firm course at a nice price for Coolmore, Aidan O'Brien and Frankie Dettori. The #4 WAR LIKE GODDESS, #5 DIDIA, and the Canadian mare #10 MOIRA are the next batch of contenders for me — MH
Mike’s Picks - 3,7,4,5,10
Looking for Longshots:
ANISETTE (GB) (15-1) took down the G1 Gamely at Santa Anita on her season bow back in May and then wasn’t seen again until August when she landed the G2 Yellow Ribbon at Del Mar. She then ran a little flat when, following a hefty bump at the start, she weakened late in the G2 John C Mabee at the same track. There are better horses against her today, but none will be as familiar with the conditions and this looks like it might have been the target for quite some time — NR
Race 10 - 4:05 p.m. $2 million Breeders’ Cup Sprint, 6 furlongs (dirt)
The tenth race is the $2 million Breeders Cup Sprint for three-and-up going six furlongs. There appears to be a ton of early speed and I can’t see anyone getting loose, which will play out beautifully for the #4 NAKATOMI, who had no shot last time with a loose leader running away on him. The pace scenario should be fierce and I think he’s the best closer. The #10 MULLIKIN has put together a string of powerhouse performances at seven-eighths but he’s shortening back to six panels here, which is a bit of disadvantage for him. However, he is so good right now he may win anyways. The #8 STRAIGHT NO CHASER has speed and must avoid a duel, he’s good enough with the right trip and has the home course advantage so he would be no surprise — MH
Mike’s Picks 4,10,8
Looking for Longshots:
GUN PILOT (20-1) may be such an obvious longshot contender that he ends up being poor value but, at 20-1, he’s a must play. A closer with an impressive cruising speed, he could be the main beneficiary of a line-up brimming with front-end speed — NR
Race 11 – 4:45 p.m. $2 million Breeders’ Cup Mile, 1 mile (turf)
The eleventh event of the day is the $2 million Breeders Cup Mile for three-year-olds-and-up traveling one mile on the turf course. The Godolphin, Appleby and Buick trio are heavily armed again as their charge #6 NOTABLE SPEECH looks to be the one to beat. He was compromised by soft ground in his last race but he is back on a firm surface and is favourably drawn, so I think he rebounds with a huge run. The Coolmore, O'Brien and Moore tandem are also well represented with #4 DIEGO VELAZQUEZ (IRE), who is on a roll having won Group 2 and Group 3 races heading into this tough test. He may be a bit below some of his rivals on paper, but I respect the connections as they know how to prep horses to fire their best on the right day. The next ones for me are the #9 JOHANNES and the #12 CARL SPACKLER (IRE); named after the greens-keeper in Caddyshack played by Bill Murray — MH
Mike’s Picks - 6,4,9,12
Looking for Longshots:
MORE THAN LOOKS (20-1) didn’t make his first start of the season until August and then ran again in September. Both times he was second to the more fancied CARL SPACKLER in two G1 contests. However, he’ll be running on late and, given his credentials, is too big a price to ignore — NR
Race 12 – 5:25 p.m. $1 million Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, 1 mile (dirt)
The final race of the Breeders Cup of weekend is the $1 million Breeders Cup Dirt Mile. There is a pile of early speed in this race so I’m leaving all of it out and taking the closers, headed by my top pick #9 DOMESTIC PRODUCT and rider Flavien Prat. He doesn’t need too much pace to help him out but, as long as no one horse gets loose, I think he will be tough to fend off in the stretch. The #12 MUFASA (CHI) is lacking in graded company races but he is improving with each start and running extremely fast times and is an off-the-pace runner which is what I want in this race as well as being a big price. The #8 POST TIME has been on a roll this year, holding top form for trainer Brittany Russell and placing twice in Grade 1 company, so he shouldn’t be dismissed with her husband Sheldon Russell in the saddle — MH
Mike’s Picks – 9,12,8
Looking for Longshots:
To call MUFASA (12-1) ‘versatile’ would be an understatement. He was a big deal at home in Chile, where he won important races at all sorts of distances, before moving up to Kentucky. His last effort saw him land the G3 Vosburgh at Aqueduct on a surface that looked more like a flood plain than a racetrack. Prior to that, he made light work of a valuable Optional Claiming event at Colonial Downs without being asked to do anything very strenuous, yet he still broke the track record. Definitely one to stay on the right side of, regardless of his odds — NR
CITY OF TROY: MYTH OR MATERIAL
Courtesy Breeders’ Cup
A horse named CITY OF TROY — could it be more appropriate? Is he a history-making icon here to tip the ultimate scales and be remembered for years; rolling into a foreign land to first be admired, then destroy all before him? Time will tell and nearly every racing fan this week at Del Mar has at least once had the conversation of ‘can he do it?’
Aidan O’Brien, the master trainer of Ballydoyle’s global operation, believes he might be the one. After failing 17 times in the now $7 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1), the 18-time Breeders’ Cup-winning conditioner tentatively suspects he just might have covered enough bases to capture the ultimate bucket-list item for an international powerhouse operation such as his.
“I’ve looked back at those losses 100 times, of course, and we try to learn everything we can, all the time,” O’Brien said. “If we make a mistake, and there’s always loads of mistakes that we make — obviously when they run bad and get beat — then that’s another stone we have to look under. At the moment, we think we’ve looked under them all for a horse that has never run here in America.
“We’re very happy with the preparation,” O’Brien continued. “We’ve given him a hard time lately and it’s like going into a world championship boxing match. You have to be ready to be driven over and bulletproof and we think he’s as bulletproof as we can have him before he runs.
“Then, who knows, maybe there could be more things we should have done.”
Humble and mindful, O’Brien has been a media darling all week, understanding the breadth of this moment in horse racing’s history. As a student of it, he seems to grasp the enormity of what success this weekend could mean for not only longtime racing investors and Coolmore partners Mr. & Mrs. John Magnier, Derrick Smith and Michael Tabor, but also for proudly Irish team he brings here from the quiet hills of Tipperary.
“Actually, it’s unbelievable,” he explained. “For us, the lads bought (Justify) and had raced the mare and put so much into this colt. From Coolmore, he’s been reared and brought on and then come over to Ballydoyle. A lot of people put a lot of time into him. For us, it’s been a dream. To be with him as a total homebred, it’s quite special.”
While many believe that the Justify aspect of his pedigree could be what tips the scales to the positive, there is some skepticism as to the proximity of turf-laden Galileo (IRE), sire of his Grade 1-winning dam Together Forever. Arguably, the only horse in recent memory to be successful at the top level on dirt with Galileo as a grandsire is Lea, a son of First Samurai who won the 2015 Donn Handicap (G1) before ultimately finishing third in the Dubai World Cup (G1) and second in the Dirt Mile (G1).
“City’ is probably, if you sent a mare to a stallion you were trying to take the best out of both mare and stallion, he came the very best out of mare and stallion,” O’Brien explained. “He has a very long, low stride with very low head carriage and that would come from both the grandsire and the sire. Obviously, there’s plenty of Galileo in him because of the way he’s worked out in Europe, but we think there’s loads of Justify in him, but we’re going to learn how much Justify is in him, if that makes sense.”
In the end, the incredibly intriguing odyssey of City of Troy will roll into Del Mar and come to a head on Saturday afternoon with the world of sport watching. There will be a sea of ‘I told you so’s’ from either side of the discourse and a roar from the crowd when he is ultimately asked the question.
None of it would happen if connections like O’Brien, the Magniers, Smith and Tabor were not just as sporting and excited to find out how it all concludes.
“Every time every horse comes along, we try to expose them in every way, good and bad,” O’Brien concluded. “The lads at one time used to be all about commercial value, but now it’s all about getting the horse to show what they can do and can’t do. If we didn’t do this, we would probably say for forever, ‘why didn’t we do it’.
“Obviously, we fail all the time, but if we don’t fail, we don’t get better and we always learn more from your failures than your wins. That’s just the way it is.”
Good Luck, Everyone!
 |
|