Breeders' Cup Saturday
Breeders' Cup Saturday
Racing's biggest day of the year has finally arrived, so let's try and find some winners! Mike Heads handicaps every Breeders' Cup race, while Nigel Reid goes fishing for longshots
Race 1: $250,000 Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance Stakes. (G2), (1m 5f, dirt)
The Saturday opener is the $250,000 Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance Marathon going a mile-and-five-eighths on the main track. I have no strong views in the marathon but will take #1 TIME FOR TROUBLE and hope he can lead the field throughout under Javier Castellano. His dirt races have been better than anyone so I will hesitantly select him on top. The #3 SISKANY (GB) is the classiest runner by far and deserves to be the morning line favourite, but his talents remain unknown on dirt.
Mike's Picks - 1, 3
Looking for Longshots: Not too much scope for a real longshot winner here, although the classily-bred TIME FOR TROUBLE (ML: 4/1) may be good value. He couldn’t handle the smart NEXT in the mile-and-three-quarter Birdstone Stakes at Saratoga in July, but the pair pulled a long way clear of the third and he didn’t appear to be stopping. He’s bred to be a turf horse but clearly copes with the dirt just as well. — Nigel Reid
Race 2: $250,000 Twilight Derby (G2), (9f, turf)
The second of the morning is the G2 $250,000 Twilight Derby for three-year-olds at nine furlongs on the grass. Bob Baffert is not known for his prowess with runners on the turf but I think this race is a perfect opportunity for #3 REINCARNATE to lead throughout under Luis Saez. He started his career on turf and was then put on dirt and raced well enough to stay on the Derby trail, but now returns to the surface he might be best at and the price will be right. The #6 WEBSLINGER has been a gem of consistency and is the logical play. The #5 PANIC ALARM (IRE) has had misfortunes in both of his starts since arriving in the U.S. and could possess some value.
Mike's Picks - 3, 6, 5
Looking for Longshots: WATSONVILLE (ML: 15/1) will clearly need to improve considerably to win this, but he’s lightly-raced and going the right way. He’s put on quite the late show in his two most recent wins, impressing with a decisive late burst of speed on both occasions. He’s also a locally-trained horse which remains an advantage, regardless of how powerful any foreign raiders may be - NR.
Race 3: Big Ass Fans Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1), (1 mile, dirt)
The third is the start of nine consecutive Breeders’ Cup stakes races and leading off is the $1 million Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. The #3 CODY’S WISH is the obvious choice being undefeated going seven furlongs or a mile over the past three years. Bill Mott has planned out another abbreviated campaign for him with this race as the ultimate goal. The #9 NATIONAL TREASURE is an interesting alternative as this race doesn’t feature much pace so he could be in a nice spot early and be able to post an upset. The #4 ZOZOS is the only other one I would be looking at, he’s sharp and has speed which is where you want to be if you are going to beat the #3 CODY’S WISH today.
Mike’s Picks - 3, 9, 4
Looking for Longshots: SKIPPYLONGSTOCKING (ML: 12/1) ran them of their feet in a dazzling Charles Town Classic win in August and, although he does put in the occasional clunker, is a classy performer on his day and not to be trifled with. The mile is as short as he probably wants to go these days but he’s certainly effective enough over the distance to have solid place and show claims - NR
Race 4: Maker's Mark Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1), (10f, turf)
The fourth is the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf going a mile-and-a-quarter on the grass. The Europeans usually dominate these filly and mare turf routes, but this may be a year that the North American runners perform well as the firm ground, short stretch and tight turns can be an equalizer for the less talented local horses. With that being said, I like the #9 DIDIA, who owns a win over the course and distance, albeit against less demanding opposition. She should get a good pace in front of her to suit her off-the-pace style under Vince Cheminaud. The #2 WARM HEART is the most talented runner in the field and comes into the race off back-to-back G1s for trainer Aidan O'Brien and teams up with rider Ryan Moore. They will likely go off as favourite and she is one of the more likely winners on the card. The John Gosden trainee #6 INSPIRAL is another bringing in solid credentials, capturing G1 wins in France and England in her last two starts. She is a major player, as well.
Mike’s Picks - 9, 2, 6
Looking for Longshots: Mike’s snapped up the ‘wise guy’ selection DIDIA here, so we’re rowing in with the British raider STATE OCCASION (ML: 20/1) . Half the battle with Europeans is finding one who relishes the firm turf and, although she’s a little below the top mares at home, her best form has come at the 10-furlong distance on a sound surface - NR
Race 5: $1 million PNC Bank Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1), (7f, dirt)
The fifth of the day is the $1 million Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint at seven furlongs. The heavy morning line favourite #1 GOODNIGHT OLIVE is undoubtedly the one to beat, as she is enjoying another brilliant campaign, but has drawn a post that I feel will be troubling for her so I am trying to beat her with the #3 EDA, who is adding blinkers after a disappointing third place run as the 3/5 favourite in her final prep race. She needs her career best but at least she has the home-court advantage, winning four of five times at Santa Anita. The #7 SOCIETY won her last two starts easily under Tyler Gafflione and is a good spot for her on the pace style.
Mike’s Picks - 3, 1, 7
Looking for Longshots: Seven furlongs at this level is going to feel like a long way for some of these ‘sprinters’, so vital to go with something proven at the distance. MATAREYA (ML: 6/1) certainly qualifies. She hasn’t missed the board since 2021, has remained resolute in the very best company and arrives here after a nice break. If those odds seem a little short for a ‘longshot’, then take a look at KIRSTENBOSCH (ML: 10/1). As a closer, she’ll need clear passage, but the distance holds little concern and she can take advantage if they go too fast early – as is often the case in Championship events - NR
Race 6: $2 million FanDuel Breeders' Cup Mile presented by PDJF (G1), (1 mile, turf)
The sixth is the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Turf Mile. I have been thoroughly impressed with the two races put forth by the #14 MASTER OF THE SEAS since coming to North America. He crushed the field in the Woodbine Mile then struck some trouble on the inside when narrowly losing the Turf Mile at Keeneland early last month. He will need some luck getting position from his outside draw under Bill Buick but if he gets a decent trip then he should claim victory. The #11 KELINA was a longshot winner of the prestigious G1 Prix de la Foret at Longchamp, signaling he is a candidate for a mile upset under regular pilot Maxime Guyon. The best North American chance is the #3 CASA CREED, who has been a model of consistency for conditioner Bill Mott, performing well in all tasks that have been asked of him.
Mike's Picks - 14, 11, 3
Looking for Longshots: The Europeans look to hold all the cards here and some, like the France-trained G1 Prix de la Foret winner KELINA (ML: 6/1), who represents the same owner/breeders responsible for the remarkable Breeders’ Cup heroine GOLDIKOVA, appeal at the odds. MORE THAN LOOKS (ML: 15/1), meanwhile, continues to improve with racing and he can certainly make his presence felt - NR
Race 7: $2 million Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1), (9f dirt)
The seventh is the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Distaff for fillies and mares going a mile-and-an-eighth. I see a ton of early speed and can’t imagine any one runner getting a comfortable lead, so my loyalties for this race will go on the #9 CLAIRIERE and rider Joel Rosario. She has been burdened with pedestrian paces set in front of her all season long so this will be a great opportunity for her to shine and get her third G1 win of the year for trainer Steve Asmussen.
Mike’s Picks - 9
Looking for Longshots: WET PAINT (ML: 10/1) carried all before her earlier in the spring before coming unstuck when favourite for the Kentucky Oaks. Last seen in August when second to RANDOMIZED in the G1 Alabama Stakes at Saratoga, she should have appreciated the short rest and is definitely in the mix here. LE DA VIDA (ML: 20/1), meanwhile, seldom runs a disappointing race and was second to favourite IDIOMATIC last time - NR
Race 8: $4 million Longines Breeders' Cup Turf (G1), (12f turf)
The eighth of the afternoon is the $4 million Breeders’ Cup Turf going a mile-and-a-half mile on the grass. Despite the firm ground and warm temperatures I think the European runners will dominate this 12-furlongs test. The best on paper is the #5 AUGUSTE RODIN, winner of three G1 races including the Epsom and Irish Derbys, all with Ryan Moore aboard for Aidan O'Brien. He appears to be able to stay in contact early in his races, which will be a key over this pace favouring track. The #9 MOSTAHDAF is another top-class performer, winning two G1 races in his last couple of starts. Jim Crowley was in the irons for the victory at Ascot and will return to the saddle today. The #11 KING OF STEEL is another major player, winning a G1 in England just two weeks ago with Frankie Dettori up. The quick turnaround is not a big issue for the European types, so he should not be dismissed.
Mike's Picks - 5, 9, 11
Looking for Longshots: Japan’s rise on the international racing scene over the past decade has been spectacular (if hardly a shock) and bettors ignore the nation’s Breeders’ Cup contingent at their own peril. The globetrotting SHAHRYAR (ML: 15/1) has solid G1 form, runs well when fresh and looks to have been laid out for this race - NR
Race 9: $6 million Longines Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), (10f, dirt)
The ninth is the $6 million Breeders’ Cup Classic at a mile and a quarter on the main track. This is one of my key bets of the weekend and #3 WHITE ABARRIO, who cruised to a big win in his last start at Saratoga in the G1 Whitney under Irad Ortiz Jr., should get a great trip positioned close to a sensible pace. I think he will love the mile-and-a-quarter distance while others that are near the pace may not. The #12 ARABIAN KNIGHT is probably going to be the favourite but must avoid a pace duel with the #6 SAUDI CROWN if he is to win. The #2 ZANDON will be my second choice as he should enjoy the longer trip and was very impressive in his Woodward victory at Aqueduct.
Mike's Picks – 3, 2, 12
Looking for Longshots: BRIGHT FUTURE (ML: 10/1) and PROXY (12/1) put on a thriller in the G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup at Saratoga last month and, while they are obviously outsiders here, both should be staying on at the sharp end. Proxy was getting to Bright Future with every stride but the winner that day showed a nice extra gear when asked at the top of the stretch – it also doesn’t hurt that both have pedigrees befitting a potential ‘Classic’ winner - NR
Race 10: $1 million Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (G1), (5f, turf)
The tenth is the $1 million Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint going five furlongs on the lawn and is one of the toughest of the two-day competition. The #5 LIVE IN THE DREAM had a somewhat successful stateside debut, checking in fourth after disputing a ridiculously fast pace under Sean Kirrane at Keeneland last month. That should set him up for a top run today. The #2 BRADSELL is one that has been competing with the best sprinters in Europe and, while this is a Breeders’ Cup race, it does not feature the same calibre of talent that he had been facing earlier this year. I think he deserves a look and could be a decent price under relatively unknown rider Luke Morris. The #8 AESOP’S FABLES added blinkers in last month’s G1 Prix de L’Abbaye de Longchamp and came home a game third at 43-1 under Ryan Moore.
Mike's Picks - 5, 2, 8
Looking for Longshots: Connections have taken their time with BIG INVASION (ML: 15/1) since his return from an unsuccessful trip to Royal Ascot in June and the patience has paid off. Second on his return to action in September, he then came with a trademark late move to land Woodbine’s G2 Nearctic Stakes in October. He’ll need some blessing from the traffic gods but is fresh and certainly not out of his depth - NR
Race 11: $2 million Qatar Racing Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1), (6f, dirt)
The eleventh is the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Sprint for three-year-olds and up going six furlongs. The #8 ELITE POWER is the best sprinter in the lineup but will still need some help with the pace. He was pace compromised last time out when #9 GUNITE got the better of him, but I feel he will get his revenge today under Irad Ortiz Jr. The #9 GUNITE has been in top form throughout the season and the outside post should help his chances. The #7 SPEED BOAT BEACH made a brilliant return to the races after a ten-month break, finishing a narrow runner-up to the #2 Dr. SCHIVEL. But, with the race under his belt, he should be better this afternoon.
Mike's Picks - 8, 9, 7
Looking for Longshots: Whether they’ll go fast enough to give him something to aim at remains to be seen but, with only nine scheduled to go to post, traffic shouldn’t be an issue for hold-up horse NAKATOMI (ML: 15/1). He’s a classy speed merchant on his best day and, with just one outing (second to HOIST THE GOLD (ML: 15/1) in October’s G2 Phoenix Stakes at Keenland) since July, should be fresh and full of running - NR
Race 12: $100,000 Allowance, (6 1/2f, turf)
The final race of the day is a $100,000 Allowance race for fillies and mares going six-and-a-half furlongs on the downhill turf course. The #3 IRISH PATSY has been very good this year and remains razor sharp for trainer Mike McCarthy. She should be in a nice spot behind the speed under Irad Ortiz Jr. and I like her to win it. The #7 GEM MINE has been knocking at the door, should break through soon and perhaps it is today with Frankie Dettori in the saddle. The other interesting runner for me is the #12 ARINNITI, who has been very sharp in the a.m. for Hall-of-Fame conditioner, Richard Mandella.
Mike’s Picks - 3, 7, 12
Looking for Longshots: LUNAR IMPACT (ML: 15/1) seems to be improving and is certainly better than her most recent effort when almost put through the rail in a Listed Santa Anita sprint last month. Forced to come from way back, she still nearly hit the board and a similar performance today could make her morning-line odds look generous.
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