Breeders' Cup Saturday
Breeders' Cup Saturday
Mike Heads marks your card on a magnificent Breeders' Cup day, featuring no fewer than NINE G1 contests and climaxing with the $6 million Breeders' Cup Classic and a date with destiny for Flightline
We hope you’ve all got some ammo left after Friday’s action! Mike tipped-up four winners in all, so not too shabby from him, while our longshot radar sorted a winner, second and a huge-priced third (as well as three frustrating fourth-place finishes we won’t mention!). Best of luck to everyone for Saturday!
Breeders’ Cup Saturday
Race 1 – 7:30 a.m.
The Saturday opener is for two-year-old maidens going seven furlongs for a $150,000 purse and it’s hard to not like the #4 ARABIAN KNIGHT, who has been extremely impressive in his morning trials where he worked in company with LAUREL RIVER - one the top choices in the Dirt Mile later in the day. If Bob Baffert thinks this colt is good enough to have his final prep for a maiden with a strong Breeders Cup Dirt Mile candidate then I’m looking no further. One other debutante I was interested in is the #8 ROCKET AND ROLL, who was purchased in training sale in May for $675,000 and I’m going to guess that this horse is better than his average looking workouts - (Mike Heads).
Mike's Picks - key 4 with 8,10,12
Looking for Longshots: DAKOTA RUN (ML: 12-1). Encouraging reappearance after a short lay-off and can make his presence felt - (Nigel Reid).
Race 2 – 8:05 a.m.
The second of the morning is an optional claimer for $100,000 or non-winners of three lifetime going six and a half furlongs and, on paper, this race did not come up very difficult for the #3 MESSIER, who has blazed the track in a.m. for conditioner Bob Baffert after finishing 15th in the Kentucky Derby. He looks set to resume his successful career after a six-month pause. The #2 NAKATOMI has been very good in his two starts in 2022, winning a $62,500 optional claimer after a lengthy layoff then fourth in the G2 Gallant Bob at Parx. He looks like he’s sitting on another good race as he returns to allowance company for trainer Wesley Ward - (MH).
Mike's Picks - 3,2,6,5
Looking for Longshots: SILK TRADE (ML: 10-1) Juddmonte bred and sitting on a hat-trick of wins. Rallying win last time suggests extra yardage may suit - (NR).
Race 3 – 8:50 a.m. $1 million Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Sprint
Leading off Breeders’ Cup Day proper is the $1 million Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Sprint at seven furlongs. I think the filly that will get a favourable trip and has the ability to win is the #7 OBLIGATORY. She has been compromised by tough trips and I feel she is going to get a hot pace to set up her off-the-pace style and she will be a real force in the stretch. The #13 ECHO ZULU has the speed to clear or at least get into a good position early and her best race is good enough to win so I respect her in this race as well - (MH).
Mike’s Picks - 7,13,8
Looking for Longshots: CHI TOWN LADY (ML: 20-1). Looked a different proposition after a lay-off, coming from dead last to win the G1 Test - (NR).
Race 4 – 9:29 a.m. $1 million Breeders Cup Turf Sprint
The $1 million Breeders Cup Turf Sprint going five and a half furlongs and one they will all have to catch is the #8 GOLDEN PAL, who won this race last year and has blazing speed in a race that doesn’t appear to have much early gas, a scenario which gives him a huge tactical advantage for Irad Ortiz Jr. and trainer Wesley Ward. If a pace duel materializes then I really think the #11 CASA CREED will be tough to fend off in the stretch. He is shortening up in distance but is versatile and is coming out of some very strong races and I think this is a much easier test for him. I can’t leave out Appleby and Buick in a turf race so I will put #1 CREATIVE FORCE (IRE) on the ticket as well - (MH).
Mike’s - 8,11,1,6,4.
Looking for Longshots: ARREST ME RED (ML: 15-1). Versatile speedster with proven G1 ability from an in-form barn. Looks value - (NR).
Race 5 – 10:10 a.m. $1 million Breeders Cup Dirt Mile
The $1 million Breeders Cup Dirt Mile and I’m riding the Bob Baffert train with #6 LAUREL RIVER, a colt that is on the improve and easily won the Grade ll Pat O'Brien at Del Mar in only his second start of the season. He should get a perfect trip sitting on the outside of GUNITE and I feel he should run a huge race with that kind of position. The #7 CODY'S WISH has been a delight for Bill Mott, winning six of his last seven and most recently knocking off the heavy choice JACKIE'S WARRIOR in the Grade l Forego at Saratoga. There should be a decent enough pace to make him a huge player and regular rider Junior Alvarado returns to the saddle. The #3 PIPELINE is locally owned by Langley resident John Gunther and his daughter Tanya (Eurowest Bloodstock) and is in with a legitimate shot - (MH)
Mike's Picks - 6,7,3,9,2
Looking for Longshots: LAW PROFESSOR (ML: 20-1). Equally adept on dirt and seems just as effective at a mile. Hard to knock his form at the price - (NR)
Race 6 – 10:50 a.m. $2 million Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Turf
The $2 million Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Turf and not surprisingly the European gals will be taking the bulk of the support at the windows. After watching an Aidan O'Brien interview, he has sold me on the #5 TUESDAY (IRE) who has been compromised in her last two starts running over soft turf courses. She has lured Ryan Moore back aboard and I will give them a slight edge over the #3 NASHWA (GB), who is a two time Group l winner and in her last was a game runner-up at Longchamps under Hollie Doyle in the Prix de l'Opera. Her form has been brilliant all season for veteran conditioner John Gosden. The #11 IN ITALIAN (GB) has blazing speed and has shown she can get nine furlongs against top U.S. mares but the waters are deeper today so she will need her career best to wire the field under Joel Rosario. The #4 ABOVE THE CURVE is another Euro-import although a Kentucky bred that has been spot on throughout the year and will get John Velazquez to ride for Joseph O'Brien, the son of Aidan O'Brien. Both have the same ownership, made up mostly of the Coolmore Group of Magnier, Tabor and Smith. I would be remiss if I didn’t give a shout out to the #12 MOIRA, who was miles best in the E.P. Taylor but ended being DQ'd back to eighth - (MH).
Mike's Picks - 5,3,11,4,12
Looking for Longshots: MOIRA (ML: 10-1). Will need it all to go right from a wide gate but was a very unlucky loser in the E P Taylor and now has added Dettori factor - (NR).
Race 7 - 11:30 a.m. $2 million Breeders Cup Sprint
The $2 million Breeders Cup Sprint and perhaps one of the likeliest winners of the day is the #9 JACKIE'S WARRIOR, who suffered his first defeat of the season last time out, getting caught late at Saratoga in the Grade l Forego at seven-eighths of a mile. He hasn’t been tested at this six furlong trip in 2022 and with not much other speed signed on he is going to be very tough to catch as he returns to his best distance. The #2 KIMARI has been a solid sprinter in the Filly and Mare division and definitely deserves another Breeders Cup shot for trainer Wesley Ward. Jose Ortiz takes over from Joel Rosario who is aboard the favoured JACKIE'S WARRIOR. The new kid on the block that is going very well is the #6 ELITE POWER, who brings a four-race winning streak into the Sprint and Bill Mott mentioned in an interview that they had to wait on him with shins at two and three but the wait has been worthwhile as he has blossomed into a top class runner. He has the talent but lacks the seasoning - (MH).
Mike’s Picks - key 9 with 2,6,10
Looking for Longshots: C Z ROCKET (ML: 20-1). Came with a rattling run up the rail at Santa Anita last time and just missed. Should be flying at the close - (NR).
Race 8 – 12:10 p.m. $2 million Breeders Cup Turf Mile
The eighth of the afternoon is the $2 million Breeders Cup Turf Mile and I like the Charles Appleby superstar #4 MODERN GAMES (IRE) who has been powerful in both of his runs in North America and is favourably drawn for his style. He prepped nicely three weeks ago at Ascot in the Group ll QE 2 finished a good second leaving something in the tank for today's big race. The #3 DREAMLOPER (IRE) crushed her male rivals in the Group l Prix de la Mouton de Longchamp under jockey Kieran Shoemark in her latest start. She has had a big season winning three of five and her only subpar showing was over yielding ground back in June. She is also nicely positioned in the gate for good performance. The #10 ORDER OF AUSTRALIA shouldn’t be taken too lightly as he was probably best in his last if his head wasn’t turned at the break which left him with a lot to do. He is a former Breeders Cup winner capturing the 2020 Turf Mile and is reunited with Ryan Moore - (MH).
Mike's Picks - 4,3,10,11,13
Looking for Longshots: ORDER OF AUSTRALIA (ML: 12-1). Won the BC Cup Mile two years ago and represents the all-conquering O’Brien team. Not here to make up the numbers - (NR).
Race 9 – 12:55 p.m. $2 million Breeders Cup Distaff
The $2 million Breeders Cup Distaff for fillies and mares at a mile and an eighth and Todd Pletcher looks to be holding a couple of aces in MALATHAAT and NEST. I’m not going against either one and will take #1 MALATHAAT on top. She might have a little better chance at a good early position than her stablemate, which was enough for me to narrowly side with her. The #6 NEST has been amazing this year and has been unstoppable since her runner-up effort in the Belmont Stakes against the boys. Her only race against older mares was in her last the Grade ll Beldame ,which was not the strongest of fields. Strictly the one to beat. The #8 SOCIETY is an interesting option solely on the fact that she is going to get the lead and it could make her dangerous. Her only defeat in six starts came at Saratoga in the Grade l CCA Oaks but she has rebounded with blowout victories at Charlestown and Parx to earn a spot in the gate today - (MH).
Mike's Picks – 1,6 Exactor Box.
Looking for Longshots: BLUE STRIPE (ML: 20-1). Winner on merit when upsetting Shedaresthedevil in the G1 Clement L Hirsch at Santa Anita - (NR).
Race 10 – 1:40 p.m. $4 million Breeders Cup Turf
The $4 million Breeders Cup Turf going a mile and a half and I'm going to give top honours to the #7 NATIONS PRIDE (IRE) who has been rock solid since arriving in New York, showing that he is the real deal and winning two of three. I like the fact that he can lay close if the pace is slow and he should be in a perfect striking position and I feel he has the talent to win it. The #5 REBEL’S ROMANCE (IRE) brings a four race winning streak into today’s race and remains undefeated since moving to the turf back in June. He is a late closer so he will need a clever game plan by rider James Doyle to get the victory. The #3 STONE AGE (IRE) was not disgraced in his two tries in New York earlier this summer and deserves a longshot look for the strong Ryan Moore-Aidan O’Brien tandem. Many will be cheering for the brilliant mare #2 WAR LIKE GODDESS who beat the boys in her latest comfortably winning the Grade l Turf Classic at Aqueduct. If Joel Rosario can work out a trip and not get too far back then she has a shot (MH).
Mike's Picks - 7,5,3,2
Looking for Longshots: HIGHLAND CHIEF (ML: 15-1). Had the run of the race in the Sycamore last time but turned back all challengers with some tenacity down the stretch - (NR).
Race 11 – 2:40 p.m. $6 million Breeders Cup Classic
Well, all the workouts, galloping videos and preliminary preparations are now in the books and it is game time and I hope the the $6 million Breeders Cup Classic lives up to the heavyweight champion type status that it has been given. The current champ is the #4 FLIGHTLINE, who has been flawless in his five starts to date, racking up Beyers ranging from 105 to his most recent 126 where he destroyed his opponents, winning by 19 lengths and answering any remaining doubters. He doesn’t leave the gate well but Flavien Prat has options and will likely just point him to the three path and run his race from there. I personally don’t see him losing but it’s a horse race and things can happen. If he loses I think the #1 TAIBA will be the one that pulls off the upset, he’s coming into the race fresh and after his disappointing Kentucky Derby run he has rebounded after some rest between starts to put two high impact races together. I feel he is sitting on his best career race and we will see if his best is good enough. The top three year old this season has been the #6 EPICENTER and with the likelihood of a quick early tempo he will be rolling late in this ten furlong slugfest - (MH).
Mike's Picks - 4,1,6
Looking for Longshots: RICH STRIKE (ML: 20-1). KY Derby hero should get a suitable pace here and will be doing his best work late as always - (NR).
Race 12 – 3:20 -p.m.
The final of the day is the $350,000 Fall Harvest Stakes for fillies and mares going a mile on the turf. There appears to be a lot of speed in this one so I will take the #2 WAKANAKA (IRE), who will be a back marker early under Joel Rosario and if the speed is softened up then she has a solid chance to catch them all. Her form has been very good until her no threat seventh place finish in the Grade I Woodbine Mile against the boys she is in a much easier spot today. The #5 SHANTISARA (IRE) has only run once in the past year which is a concern but her class is not in question and if she fires her best race she will win at a short price. The #7 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (IRE) is also getting some class relief which is a plus for the Chad Brown trainee and Jose Ortiz will be at the controls - (MH).
Mike’s Picks - 2,5,7
Looking for Longshots: BURNING AMBITION (ML 15-1). Only reappeared in September, but led them a merry dance before losing a tight one. Hasn’t missed the board in seven career starts and may still be improving - (NR).
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