Breeders' Cup Friday
Mike and Nigel return to mark your card for the coming festivities at Del Mar. First up is "Future Stars Friday", concentrating on the best juveniles from the U.S., Europe and Japan
Race 1 – 11:35 a.m. $150,000 Optional Allowance Claiming, 6 1/2 furlongs (dirt)
Things start off with a first level allowance and I like Bob Baffert's #9 DOTHRAKI who is undefeated in one start while tiring noticeably and, watching the replay, one can see why as blood was coming from his nose approaching the wire which will stop any horse. He has been freshened up and given plenty of time to heal the lungs and has turned in a series of strong morning trials to prepare for his return, which is aided by a favourable outside draw for this six-and-a-half-furlong test. Flavien Prat will be at the controls, which definitely adds to the appeal — Mike Heads
Mike's Picks – 9,5,6
Looking For Longshots:
Although off since July, the relatively lightly-raced ZEUS’S WAR (Morning Line 20-1) has been working noticeably well in the mornings at Pleasanton and makes a rare foray to the south of the State. His two efforts at a mile didn’t go well but he’s back sprinting here and shouldn’t be outclassed — Nigel Reid
Race 2 – 12:10 p.m. $200,000 Senator Ken Maddy Stakes, 5 furlongs (turf)
The second is the $200,000 Senator Ken Maddy stakes going five-eighths of a mile on the lawn. Nothing brilliant from me in here as I land on the two morning line faves. I’m leaning to #3 JUST NAILS, as she in nicely drawn with Frankie Dettori aboard, has a sharp form of late and is a course and distance winner. The #6 KISSED BY FIRE was offered for a price for the first time in her career and she responded with an easy score at the optional $80,000/non-two other than category. She is another that has performed stylishly at this oval and gets Antonio Fresu for conditioner Pete Sutton — MH.
Mike's Picks – 3,6
Looking for Longshots:
While unlikely to be a true longshot, TWIRLING QUEEN (6-1) should provide some value at the betting window. She came unstuck when upped in distance last time but, prior to that, was unbeaten in four sprints; the two most recent of which were on the turf. She looks to be a handy sort, happy to sit just behind the speed, and may still have more to come now that she has revealed herself to be fond of grass — NR.
Race 3 – 12:45 p.m. $175,000 Golden State Juvenile Fillies Stakes, 7 furlongs (dirt)
The third of the day is the $175,000 Golden State Juvenile Fillies, a restricted event for Cal-bred or Cal-sired two-year-old fillies at seven furlongs on the main track. I’m taking a shot on the outside filly #9 IN THE AIR TONIGHT (15-1 morning line but doubt we will get that) as she returns to Cal-bred company after a decent try in an open Grade 2 race — the top two finishers from which reappear in today’s $2 million Juvenile Fillies race. Her prior runs are all plenty good enough to be a strong threat and in the Generous Portion (Sept 2nd) she was pinned down on the inside and shook loose too late, finishing second, 14 lengths clear of the third runner. The favoured #1 HOT GIRL WALK got first run on my top pick last time when winning her second race in a row but, being stuck on the inside (not the best post going seven-eighths) and with an extra furlong to negotiate, I think she may be a vulnerable one. Reddam Stables’ #4 PAVEL IS APPEALING looked good on debut with Mario Gutierrez in the saddle, winning in a good time only two-fifths slower than HOT GIRL WALK stakes time on the same day, so she could be “appealing” at a decent price — MH.
Mike's Picks - 9,1,4
Looking for Longshots:
WE THE FREE (15-1) was impressive when winning on her career debut at Del Mar in September. She then ran very creditably a month later to finish third in a valuable Santa Anita Allowance contest after trying to make all the running. She got tired that day and was caught late by today’s rival THIRSTY MAMA, but she displayed an abundance of tenacity and should give her supporters plenty of run for their money here — NR
Race 4 – 1:25 p.m. $200,000 Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance Stakes, 1 mile (turf)
The fourth is the $200,000 Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance race for two-year-olds going a mile on the grass. This is one of many difficult handicapping assignments that will be put in front of us this weekend, with 14 competitive two-year-olds in the gate. After watching some replays I was quite impressed with the #13 TEST SCORE, who seems a talented colt with great promise as he showed the kind of resilience that only special horses have in his most recent race, splitting runners while in an uncomfortable position, prior to landing his first career victory in a highly-rated maiden race at Keeneland. I also like the fact that top trainer Graham Motion thought enough of him to toss him in the deep end against the best two-year-olds in the With Anticipation Stakes at Saratoga. I think he could be very live but will need a fortunate trip from his outside draw. Not sure why the Godolphin runner #3 CAVALLO BOY (GB) is 15-1 in the book as all the connections (Appleby- Buick) ever seem to do is win races on Breeders Cup weekend. He has had two decent efforts in tougher races since coming over from Great Britain, he’s favourable drawn, so why not. The best of the rest are the trouble prone #1 SABERTOOTH and #6 SUPA SPEED, who turned in a nice run up the inside to be a no-threat second behind the undefeated THOUGHT PROCESS — who is the second choice (5-2) in the $1 million Juvenile Fillies Turf. There isn’t an overabundance of speed in the lineup, so I’m not leaving out #9 FLOODLITES who has decent speed and the pedigree to be a very good mile turf horse for trainer Wesley Ward — MH.
NOTE: # 8 PALI KITTEN is scratched with connections opting instead for the Juvenile Turf Sprint in Race 6.
Mike’s Picks - 13,3,1,6,9
Looking for Longshots:
There should be plenty of double-figure odds available here in what looks a wide-open contest, especially now that the morning-line favourite, PALI KITTEN, goes for the Juvenile Turf Sprint. CHASING LIBERTY (15-1) makes plenty of appeal with Irad Ortiz in the plate for the first time. He’ll probably need to be a little closer to the action around Del Mar than in his most recent effort, when he overcame a rough race and a five-wide challenge to eat up ground late in the Indian Summer Stakes at Keeneland, but should appreciate the extra real estate as long as he’s close enough to do some damage at the business end — NR.
Race 5 – 2:05 p.m. $175,000 Golden State Juvenile Stakes, 7 furlongs (dirt)
The fifth on the program is the $175,000 Golden State Juvenile for Cal-bred or Cal-sired two-year-olds going seven furlongs on the main track. I like both of the Luis Mendez-trained runners and I will take the longer price of two on top. #10 SILVERADO STORM, who was dropped in for a tag to claim his first win under Adrian Escobedo in a good time on a very dull surface. He was one the few that was running with good energy in the stretch on the laboring track, which leads me to believe he will enjoy the longer trip. He was well-backed on his debut in a miserable effort but then connections took the blinkers off in a wide-open maiden, which obviously proved too tough, before returning to the Cal-bred ranks for his win. He possesses value so I’m in his corner today. His stablemate #4 I’M A BAD BOY has been very impressive, winning back to back races with Ricardo Gonzalez in the irons, but this is a tougher test. #3 R HEISMAN is getting some class relief exiting a couple of open company stakes races. He is a major player with California’s top jock Juan Hernandez aboard — MH.
Mike’s Picks – 10,4,3
Looking for Longshots:
The 12-1 morning line offered on GOT’M COT’M looks too juicy to ignore. The son of Bolt D’Oro raced at the head of affairs until weakening into fourth behind the far more experienced I’M A BAD BOY and Speedy Wilson on his racing debut back in August, but then went down by just a neck to the short-priced favourite SPEEDY WILSON on his second outing the following month. He’ll be close to the head of affairs and any improvement at all would give him a leading chance — NR.
Race 6 – 2:45 p.m. $1 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, 5 furlongs (turf)
The sixth race is the first Breeders Cup race of the afternoon and it is the $1 million Juvenile Turf Sprint at five furlongs. This is one race where I need help as I’m having a pile of trouble trying to decipher who is best. This race is one that I would suggest to play ALL in any multi leg wagers. The race features seven Euros who are all capable with the right trip and, although I’m guessing that #7 WHISTLEJACKET (IRE) is the classiest of the Euros, the others have their upside. I watched the replay of the Japanese entrant #8 ECORO SIEG, who showed blazing speed while being pressured, then found another gear to win clear in a track-record time, making him a strong contender. The four U.S. based runners make up the balance of the field and likely best is the very quick #10 GOVERNOR SAM, who has rattled off four consecutive victories and three of them in Stakes company. As I mentioned, this race is a total mess for me and if looking to play the race then err on the side of value with #12 IDES OF MARCH (Ire), # 4 MAGNUM FORCE and the #7 WHISTLEJACKET — MH.
NOTE: #1 Out of Bail is scratched while #13 Pali Kitten draws in to run
Mike’s Picks – 12,4,7,10
Looking for Longshots:
A renowned trainer of sprinters in the U.K., Karl Burke sent Dramatised over to finish second in this race two years ago (when held at Keeneland) and he saddles the Royal Ascot Norfolk Stakes (G2) winner SHAREHOLDER (12-1) this year. Shareholder can probably be forgiven his most recent effort, when eased in soft ground in the G1 Prix Morny at Longchamp, but he is clearly a speedy sort who had WHISTELJACKET and ARIZONA BLAZE behind him that day at Ascot and represents good value here — NR.
Race 7 – 3:25 p.m. $2 million NetJets Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, 8½ furlongs (dirt)
The seventh is the $2 million Juvenile Fillies for two-year-old fillies at a mile and a sixteenth on the dirt. Two East Coast fillies are the morning line favourites off of Grade 1 victories in their last starts. I like the #3 IMMERSIVE, who has been flawless in all three career runs for trainer Brad Cox and rider Manny Franco. She has enough early speed to take advantage of her inside post and is versatile enough to settle behind if the pace gets a little too hot, which is a big edge for this talented and well-seasoned daughter of 2016 Kentucky Derby winner, Nyquist. The #4 LA CARA is interesting to me as she possesses versatility similar to my top pick but is not as shiny because of her low Beyer number winning the Pochontas stake at Churchill Downs in her latest start. I thought she overcame a lot to win and it was far from a perfect trip, which she would need to post a big Beyer number. I think the Mark Casse trainee will fire a big one from of the pace under Ricardo Santana, who been in the saddle for both of her wins. The # 10 SCOTTISH LASSIE is an obvious threat off her decisive win in the Grade 1 Frizette under Jose Lezcano for trainer Jorge Abreu. She will need to be a superstar to overcome the poor draw and she is light on seasoning which means a lot on days when there is a huge crowd — MH.
NOTE : #7 NON COMPLIANT has been scratched.
Mike’s Picks – 3,4,10
Looking for Longshots:
Forced to steady in traffic at the worst possible time in last month’s Grade 1 Frizette Stakes, SNOWYTE (15-1) was then switched three-wide at the top of the stretch, giving mightily-impressive winner SCOTTISH LASSIE plenty of head start. She probably wouldn’t have beaten the winner, even with a clear run, but she’d certainly have been closer and the pair did pull right away from the rest that day — NR.
Race 8 – 4:05 p.m. $1 million John Deers Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, 1 mile (turf)
The eighth race is the $1 million Juvenile Fillies Turf at one mile. It is tough to get past the rail filly #1 LAKE VICTORIA (IRE), who has been brilliant in all four of her races, winning two Group 1s and a Group 3 for conditioner Aidan O’Brien and the Coolmore connections. She has speed and a lethal late punch, which is a dangerous combo, while having Ryan Moore calling the shots is another feather in her cap. She is the most likely winner on the day. Her main danger will be the California phenom #7 THOUGHT PROCESS who has been unbeatable since venturing onto the turf course three starts back for trainer Phil D'Amato. She has looked great, despite being in suspect company, and will get her toughest test to date. The #8 HEAVENS GATE (Ire) narrowly scored in a Group 3 race at the Curragh for Aidan O'Brien and I like her to round out the Triactor — MH.
Mike’s Picks - 1,7,8
Looking for Longshots:
LAKE VICTORIA may look close to a lock here, but it’s a wide-open contest for second and third and SCYTHIAN (12-1) looks good value at present. She was always travelling comfortably in last month’s Grade 2 Miss Grillo Stakes over 8½ furlongs and skipped clear of her rivals in fine style when given the office. CORRETO came out of the pack late, but couldn’t match strides with the winner who is a lovely, long-striding filly who looks like she may yet have more to come — NR
Race 9 – 4:45 p.m. $2 million FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by Thoroughbred Aftrecare Alliance, 8½ furlongs (dirt)
The ninth on the Friday program is the $2 million Juvenile for two-year-olds at a mile-and-a-sixteenth. The #1 EAST AVENUE had been a monster in his first two starts, winning without being asked for his best and his latest was a dominating performance in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland under Tyler Gafflione for trainer Brendan Walsh. He is a big powerful colt with a great disposition. He has lots of speed, as well as the the rail, and I like his chances for another victory. The #5 JONATHAN'S WAY is one of many undefeated colts in here and I think he has a good chance if my top pick doesn’t fire his best race. He looks to be an advanced two-year-old that has seasoning of an older horse, despite only running twice. He has shown he doesn’t need the lead but can dictate the tempo if the opportunity were to present itself; a definite plus for Joel Rosario, who is aboard again today for Midwest trainer Phil Bauer. The #10 CHANCER MCPATRICK has already captured two Grade 1 wins using a potent late-running style employed by rider Flavien Prat. There will likely be no value but he is still a major player even from his tough post — MH.
Mike’s Picks - 1,5,10
Looking for Longshots:
Rather like this week’s ‘flu and COVID jabs, we’re going to have two stabs here. Japan has plenty of runners with serious chances at Del Mar this weekend and, while the once-raced maiden winner SHIN BELIEVE (10-1) may not be among them, he shouldn’t be overlooked. Making his career debut over nine furlongs (pretty much unheard of in North America), he spreadeagled a field of 15 on the dirt in Japan in August, without being asked a serious question, and was immediately put in bubble wrap ahead of a Breeders’ Cup tilt. He looks an exciting prospect. What HILL ROAD (30-1) (a $350k Keeneland yearling byQuality Road out of a Lemon Drop Kid mare), was even doing in Ireland remains unclear, but he won his turf debut by five lengths before then being well beaten in the G1 National Stakes at the Curragh. He has little chance on the book, but is out of a half-sister to the Breeders’ Cup Mile and Pegasus World Cup winner, CITY OF LIGHT (Quality Road) and, if dirt turns out to be his game, he might just shock a few — NR
Race 10 – 5:25 p.m. $1 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, 1 mile (turf)
The final race on Day 1 of the Breeders Cup is the $1 million Juvenile Turf for two-year-olds going one mile. The European runners should dominate but, with so many of them, it will be tough to pinpoint which one. I’m going to simplify things and narrow it down to the best Group 1 performers and Grade 1 winner. The best Group 1 performers are the # 13 HENRY MATISSE (Ire) and the # 12 AOMORI CITY (Fr) and the Grade 1 winner is #11 NEW CENTURY (GB), who was very impressive when coming from last to first under Oisin Murphy to win the Summer Stakes at Woodbine in his first start in North America. The #9 THE WACO KID (Ire) is another that interests me, as does the #7 SEAGULLS ELEVEN (Ire). This is a tough and competitive event so, if you can afford it, I would suggest that this is a race to go deep in the Pick 3,4,5 wagers — MH.
NOTE: #14 Tenacious Leader is scratched while both #15 Sabertooth and #16 Kales Angel have elected NOT to draw in.
Mike's Picks - 13,12,11,9,7
Looking for Longshots:
MINARET STATION (30-1) didn’t know he was a longshot when showing an impressive late turn of foot to catch, pass and quickly establish superiority in last month’s G2 Bourbon Stakes. The result looked anything but a fluke for the Horseshoe Indianapolis maiden winner, who is a homebred son of G1 winner INSTILLED REGARD (Arch) out of the multiple graded-stakes-winning mare, BEAU RECALL (Sir Prancealot). His family is full of speed and if he can stay in contention early on he might just mow a few down late and hit the board — NR.
Good luck everyone!
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