Breeders' Cup Friday
Mike and Nigel take a first look at this weekend's Breeders' Cup races, starting with a 'Future Champions Friday' card that contains no fewer than FIVE Grade 1 juvenile contests
We thought we’d have a little fun this week and have a look at the upcoming Breeders’ Cup races on Friday and Saturday to see if we can’t find a winner or two. Mike Heads has previewed all the races and Nigel’s chipped in with some longshot possibilities on a weekend that will captivate the racing world. We’ll sart with Friday’s card and will publish previews for Saturday on Friday afternoon.
Breeders’ Cup Friday
Race 1 - 8:55 a.m. ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
The one that sticks out to me is #8 OPEN ROAD, who just finished outgaming his rivals in an easier allowance event after a brief freshening. There is no speed in this race so Florent Geroux should be able to get the trip he wants and prove tough to beat. The #6 B DAWK is the next logical play but I am leery of horses that run a distant third in stakes company then return to the allowance ranks, so be careful at a short price on him.
Mike’s Picks – 6,8 Exactor Box
Looking for Longshots: DROPPIN’ G’S (ML: 20-1), Has been rubbing shoulders with useful sorts this season and was plugging on well enough in the G3 Ohio Derby last time to suggest he has a squeak - Nigel Reid
Race 2 – 9:30 a.m. MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
Two year old filly maidens take the spotlight in the second for a generous $150,000 pot going seven furlongs and the #11 ADIVA appears to be sitting on a win. The daughter of Street Sense was originally purchased by Glen Todd as a yearling in Kentucky for $230,000 and after his passing was bought for $200,000 at the Pegasus Glen Todd estate sale by the Bubble Up Stable and is trained by Mike Puhich, who also doubles as the farm manager for Mark DeDomenico’s Pegasus Training Center. The #2 MAGICAL SONG has a magical pedigree being by TAPIT out of former champion mare SONGBIRD and while the works are conservative, the connections Brad Cox and Joel Rosario win races so she could be dangerous. This is a wide open race with many chances and could provide us with a big price when the smoke clears. I'm leaning towards the #10 AFFIRMATIVE LADY who was well-backed in her debut and had an uncomfortable trip but ran on to be third behind the #11 ADIVA. I think the daughter of red hot sire Arrogate has a lot of upside and should improve second time out.
Mike's Picks - 10,11,2
Looking for Longshots: LA PERLA NERA (ML: 15-1). Did well on debut from a wide draw and wasn’t beaten far. Any amount of progression and she can threaten the board - NR.
Race 3 – 10:05 a.m. ALLOWANCE
The third of the day is a first level allowance for three year olds and up at six and a half furlongs for $160,000 and without any projected speed the #11 MARSALIS should prove tough to catch at what will unfortunately be a very short price. Perhaps using him as a Key in any multi-leg wagers could be a way to extract a little more money out of what should be an odds-on favourite. If a speed duel materializes then the #6 PRO OXIDANT becomes interesting as he appears to possess the best turn of foot in the stretch. The #3 SPARTAN ARMY has turned in two solid efforts in his brief racing career and would be my third pick.
Mike's Picks – 11,6,3
Looking for Longshots: PAGE ONE (ML: 20-1). A $260k Keeneland November weanling making just a third appearance. Was involved in some silly early fractions on seasonal debut last time but kept going to the line - NR.
Race 4 – 10:40 a.m. ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
The fourth is another first level allowance for a $160,000 purse for two-year-olds going seven panels and the likeliest winner will be the #9 ARABIAN LION, who looks to be another budding Bob Baffert superstar. The son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify easily blitzed a group of maidens, defeating highly regarded stablemate Elwood Blues in the process and earning a sparkling 92 Beyer for the win in 1:09 3/5. An interesting note: connections opt to take the blinkers off for his second start, so they presumably believe that he has more to give and will also add Irad Ortiz Jr. as a member of the ARABIAN LION team. The main dangers will likely come in the form of the #11 TRES SOLES, who is also a son of Justify and earned a hard fought triumph in his debut at Churchill five weeks ago for condtioner Steve Asmussen and the #12 PROTEGE, who looked very good in his first start. Replacing rider Julien Leparoux at the controls will be Luis Saez.
Mike's Picks – key 9 over 11,12
Looking for Longshots: PROVE RIGHT (ML: 20-1). Rallied well to finish never-nearer second to BC Juvenile entry Hurricane J last time - NR.
Race 5 – 11:15 a.m Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance Stakes
The first Stakes event of the afternoon is the G2 $350,000 Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance stakes for three-year-olds and up going a demanding distance of 13 furlongs. I have got it down to the three horses I prefer and leading that trio is the #6 BAL HARBOUR. He was recently claimed by trainer Robertino Diodoro who has shown expertise in being able to get long winded runners to perform at their best and with his marathon star LONE ROCK (winner of the 2021 Breeders Cup TAA stakes at Del Mar) on the shelf, Diodoro has prepared BAL HARBOUR for today’s gruelling test. He exits a $50,000 claiming race in which he was given a lofty 100 Beyer for his runaway nine furlong victory at Saratoga and with no standouts in here I think this horse will run well. The three year old #1 RATTLE N ROLL is one runner that is in top form and, while his Derby wins have been at lesser tracks, he remains sharp and facing many that appear, in my view, to be tailing off. The best of the California shippers is the #4 HEYWOODS BEACH who has shown the ability to run this far and he has done it on some tough deep tiring California tracks. The one stranger that could appear is the #2 NEXT who crushed a field no-namers in a stake at Delaware Park where he got the final quarter of the 1½-mile test in an impressive 23 3/5.
Mike’s Picks – 6,1,4,2
Looking for Longshots: NEXT (ML: 15-1). A touch of class about this lovely grey who could not have been more impressive last time out - NR.
Race 6 – 12:00 p.m. $1 million Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint
The $1 million Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint features twelve youngsters (seven colts and geldings and five fillies) in what should be a chaotic run to the first turn of this five-and-a-half-furlongs turf sprint. I will take a shot that #5 MISCHIEF MAGIC (IRE) will not suffer too many inconveniences and be able to show that he is a top class sprinter. The Charles Appleby-Bill Buick trainer jockey combo has been lethal over the past few years and when they ship across the pond for North American racing they mean business and are well prepared for each start and I’m hoping this will be no different. The most celebrated of the runners is the brilliant filly #12 THE PLATINUM QUEEN (IRE) who recently captured the Group l Prix de L'Abbaye at Longchamps against older horses (yes going 5 furlongs they have races for two-year-olds and up) in France's most prestigious sprint race. However, she has never faced a turn in her career and with a left hand turn from an outside draw this may be an equalizer for her rivals and make a victory far tougher to attain. For me this was the toughest race of the weekend to predict so I will be playing many in any multi-leg wagers.
Mike's Picks – 5,12,4,2,3
Looking for Longshots: PERSIAN FORCE (ML: 15-1). A real speedster. Hit the board in his three previous cracks at G1 company and is worthy of huge respect from this draw. Dettori booking can only help - NR.
Race 7 – 12:40 p.m. $2 Million Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies
The $2 Million Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies at a mile and a sixteenth is the start of the Late Pick 4 and all local interest will be aimed at Peter Redekop’s star filly AND TELL ME NOLIES who has rattled off back-to-back stakes wins on the tough Southern California circuit winning the Grade l Del Mar Debutante followed by her game win in the Grade ll Chandler at Santa Anita. She has done everything right and has a versatile running style that will help her in his race if she’s good enough as her Beyer numbers when compared to her Eastern opponents are far lower but she seems like the type that does just enough to win and I love horses that fight. Good luck to he connections. The morning line favourite is East Coast based runner CHOCOLATE GELATO who recently took top honours in the Grade l Frizette in New York for Todd Pletcher and Is at Ortiz Jr. She earned a 92 Beyer in her blowout maiden score at Saratoga and showed versatility when winning the Frizette by settling off the pace and producing a good late turn of speed to get the win. I have to put in the #2 YOU'RE MY GIRL who was second in the Frizette and obviously the owners were happy enough with their filly as they ponied up $100,000 to supplement to this race.
Mike’s Picks – 3,10,2,14
Looking for Longshots: GRAND LOVE (ML: 20-1) well-bred half-brother to a couple of classy routers. Got a little tired on the front end last time after sluicing-up on debut. Worth another chance - NR.
Race 8 – 1:20 p.m. $1 Million Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
The $1 Million Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf going a mile is usually a race that the Europeans dominate so in a bit of a lazy pick I will take three overseas runners. The #10 MEDIATE (IRE) has been well supported at the windows and finished up her Breeders’ Cup preps with two solid runner-up efforts in Group l races against the best fillies in Europe for top trainer Aidan O'Brien and his go-to rider Ryan Moore. The #12 MIDNIGHT MILE (IRE) is a perfect two-for-two, winning a Group 3 at Newmarket off of a three month break for conditioner Richard Fahey and the accomplished former Aidan O'Brien protege Wayne Lordan gets the call.
Mike's Picks - 10,12,5,4,6
Looking for Longshots: PLEASANT PASSAGE (ML: 12-1). Tough spot against a powerful European team but unbeaten in both starts and a recent bullet work offers encouragement. Made all the running last time to see off today’s rival, Free Look - NR.
Race 9 – 2:00 p.m. $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
The heavily favoured #3 CAVE ROCK looks extremely good in the field of ten chasing the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. The son of Arrogate has been untested in his three career starts, running extremely quickly while stretching out in distance on each occasion. The Bob Baffert pupil ran a full three seconds faster under regular pilot Juan Hernandez in the Grade l American Pharaoh than it took the two-year old fillies the same day and looks to be a superstar that is the real deal. The #4 FORTE is probably the only one that could upset CAVE ROCK as he has been very impressive rallying from off the pace which in two year old races is rare and a great quality to have if you possess it especially with so many two year old races run aggressively through the early fractions.
Mike’s Picks - key 3 over 4,5,6
Looking for Longshots: LOST ARC (ML: 20-1) – Traffic issues cost him behind stablemate Forte last time, but he has no distance worries here and can play a bigger role than his price suggests - NR.
Race 10 – 2:40 p.m. $1 million Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf
The Friday finale is the $1 million Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf and I am going to give a slight preference to the #1 VICTORIA ROAD (IRE), who comes into this on a three-race winning streak, albeit against slightly easier company. His most recent win was a Group 3 at Chantilly in France with Ryan Moore in the saddle. Trainer Aidan O'Brien will have this one primed to go and I think his best race has yet to come and hoping we should see it on Friday. The large field won’t bother him as he been used to that finishing fourth in 24 horse allowance event as well as placing in a 16 horses affair. The likely favourite will be #4 SILVER KNOTT (GB) who has has won three of his last four (his defeat at Doncaster was on a surface he didn’t care for) including most recently the Group 3 Autumn Stakes at Newmarket. The best of the rest is the #8 I'M VERY BUSY who crushed his opponents in his debut then ran over a yielding course in his first Stakes appearance. The connections of Chad Brown and Flavien Prat are also a big plus.
Mike's Picks: 1,4,8,2.
Looking for Longshots: NAGGIROC – progressive sort who, being out of a Zamindar mare, is bred to relish a little further. Put in two solid efforts over 6 furlongs and if he adapts to the distance could cause a surprise - NR.
We’ll take a look at Saturday’s extraordinary card tomorrow. Good luck!
@ all photos courtesy Breeders’ Cup unless stated
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