Breeders' Cup - Day 1 Previews
Mike Heads runs the rule over 'Future Stars Friday' as the 2023 Breeders Cup gets underway, while Nigel Reid goes tilting at windmills in a bid to find a longshot or two
Race 1 — $150,000 Qatar Golden Mile Stakes, (1 mile, turf)
The first on Breeders Cup Friday is the $150,000 Qatar Golden Mile Stakes for two-year-olds going a mile on the turf. I fancy the two proven turf runners #5 GO WITH GUSTO and the #6 MO FOX GIVIN who both have shown ability on the turf and look to be a little classier than the rest. The # 4 ULTRA POWER does own a big win at Los Al on the dirt for Baffert but the price will likely be small. The horse still has to reproduce a top race on the turf to win and I’m betting against that.
Mike’s Picks – 5,6 Exactor Box
Looking for Longshots — Jockey Ricardo Gonzales gets a chance to make amends aboard CHARGE FOR GOLD (ML: 12/1) after twice getting stuck on the rail in the Speakeasy Stakes at Santa Anita last month. Prior to that, the son of Omaha Beach caught the eye with a bloodless Maiden Special win at Del Mar and should appreciate the additional real estate today — Nigel Reid
Race 2 - $175,000 Golden State Juvenile Fillies Stakes, (7f, dirt)
California bred two year old fillies take the spotlight in the $175,000 Golden State Juvenile Fillies at seven furlongs. I usually stay away from favourites in Cal-bred races, but I was visually impressed with the debut of the #5 MIRINDA, who easily crushed a field of maidens in a brilliant time. She is not your typical homebred, being by sprint champ Mitole out of a More Than Ready mare and not surprisingly she cost $190,000 as a yearling. She retains rider Mike Smith, who rode the #11 CRAZY HOT to a Stakes victory last time out, and the Hall-of-Fame jock’s decision to stick with MIRINDA is good enough for me.
Mike's Picks - 5 over 6,7,11
Looking for Longshots: Mildly surprised to see PRANCINGTHRUPARIS (ML: 8/1) back on the dirt after looking a bit uneasy on the surface when a closing second to CRAZY HOT in a Del Mar Stakes contest last time. Prior to that, the daughter of Sir Prancealot made a winning debut in a Del Mar Maiden Special on the grass. Cionnections are presumably happy to see her back on dirt and she’s another who should be a different proposition with an extra furlong to gallop - NR
Race 3 - $150,000 Senator Ken Maddy Stakes, (6 1/2f, turf)
The third is the $150,000 Senator Ken Maddy stakes for fillies and mares going six-and-a-half furlongs down the hillside course. Trainer Wesley Ward is usually dangerous in these types of sprints and #12 PLAYLIST brings a tidy resume into this dash. Her outside draw is favourable, she should get a perfect trip under Johnny V. and I think she will prove best. Others of interest are the #2 WHITE MOONLIGHT, who is the most accomplished in the race but must get a good trip from her inside gate under Oisin Murphy. Flavien Prat will likely strike the front early on #4 ELM DRIVE, so she should not be left out.
Mike's Picks – 12,2,4
Looking for Longshots — This will be tougher, but there was much to like about BENEDICT CANYON’s (ML: 15/1) authoritative win last time (Wet My Beak back in third). The 4yo Midnight Lute filly ran just once as a sophomore but returned better than ever after also missing a couple of mid-summer months this season. She shouldn’t be bothered by the additional half-a-furlong and Frankie Dettori takes the ride - NR
Race 4 - $175,000 Golden State Juvenile Stakes (7f, dirt)
The fourth is the $175,000 Golden State Juvenile for two year old colts and geldings going seven furlongs. I will take a shot with the #11 MAGIC SPOON, who overcame adversity in his debut to win nicely under Tiago Pereira and should be a fair price in his first stakes try. The son of red hot stallion Good Magic should love the extra distance and has also come back to work well so he is my top pick.
Mike's Pick – 11
Looking for Longshots — It's hard to imagine MAGIC SPOON starting at odds as long as the predicted 6/1 and for that reason alone we’re going to roll the dice with Kent Desormeaux and SHADY APPEAL who, if it wasn’t for bad luck, would have no luck at all. The blue-collar son of former Sunland Derby winner Twice the Appeal returns to Santa Anita for the first time since beating the even-money favourite by a long-looking four lengths on his racing debut in June. Since then, he’s hopped out of the gate, taken an awkward step when coming to challenge and been buried on the rail after missing the break and pulling himself into a cul de sac. Fingers crossed for a change of fortune - NR
Race 5 — $1 million Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (G1), (5f, turf)
The first Breeders’ Cup event of the afternoon is the Grade l $1,000,000 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint going five-eighths on the grass. There are too many unknowns in this race to form a strong opinion but I will hazard a guess on the #11 SLIDER, who looked good in his win over the Santa Anita course. While he lacks the class of some others, I believe the home-field advantage will help him. The Europeans fill up six slots in the gate and many have Group l class, but none have ever had to run around a turn, so it is a guessing game as to who will carry their form into today’s race.
Mike’s Pick – 11
Looking for Longshots — Finding a European raider who enjoys the firm turf can be as difficult as picking the winner. VALIANT FORCE might just fit the bill here. As a $100,000 Keeneland yearling by Malibu Moon, out of a Quality Road mare, he’s a European in name only and certainly enjoyed the firmer going at Royal Ascot in June when landing the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes. British Champion jockey William Buick takes the ride - NR
Race 6 — $2 million NetJets Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1), (8 1/2f, dirt)
The sixth on the program is the $2 million Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies that will feature twelve fillies going a mile-and-a-sixteenth. There has been no more impressive youngster this year than #7 TAMARA, who has breezed by her rivals in both career starts, earning big Beyer numbers in the process. The daughter of Breeders Cup Distaff winner Beholder has been a total joy to watch and, under the patience tutelage of trainer Richard Mandella, looks to be coming up to another big performance. The #12 JUST F Y I is an undefeated filly by Triple Crown winner Justify who has not been as flashy as TAMARA but looked strong in a win in the slop at Aqueduct in her final prep going a mile, signalling that she is on the improve and could be a threat.
Mike's Picks – Exactor Box 7-12
Looking for Longshots — ESPRIT ENCHANTE, a $250,000 yearling, caught the eye when given a nice education by Mike Smith on her debut at Del Mar in September. She still looked a little ‘green’ when arriving late on the scene to land a Santa Anita Maiden Special by a nose last month, but she flew when the penny dropped that day and gives the impression there’s more to come. Mike Smith understandably sticks with TAMARA, so Juan Hernandez is the far-from-shabby replacement - NR
Race 7 — Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1), (1 mile, turf)
The seventh is the start of the Late Pick 4 and the two year fillies are front and center in the $1 Million Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf at a mile. The Europeans will likely dominate in this one and the #6 PORTA FORTUNA (IRE) seems to be the best on paper, coming in off of a Group 1 victory under Oisin Murphy. The #14, LES PIVOTS (IRE), is also an extremely gifted runner but may need some good fortune to go his way from his outside draw. The #9 CARLA'S WAY is also of interest to me. She comes into this race off of a good Group 2 score at Newmarket going seven furlongs over firm ground.
Mike’s Picks – 6,14,9
Looking for Longshots — DREAMFYRE (ML: 15/1) has won all three career starts, including back-to-back Grade 3 contests, in pulsating gate-to-wire fashion and, while few would give her too much of a chance if she runs the same way here, she doesn’t race like a filly who needs to be on the front end — so far, she’s just been too good to get past. If it does all end in glorious front-running failure then GALA BRAND (ML: 12/1) may be the longshot to take advantage. Ortiz overdid the waiting tactics last time but she should be flying late again here - NR
Race 8 — $2 million FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile, presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance (G1), (8 1/2f, dirt)
The eighth on the day is the $2 Million Breeders Cup Juvenile going a mile and a sixteenth. I am handicapping that there will be a strong and contested pace which would set things up beautifully for the #6 LOCKED. The son of Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Gun Runner broke his maiden impressively in a quick time, then earned his first Stakes score at Keeneland despite receiving a tough trip and showed his true class, winning a Grade 1 in a sharp time. He looks like a good one.
Mike's Pick - 6
Looking for Longshots — After setting some tasty early fractions, GENERAL PARTNER (ML: 8/1) eventually looked all at sea in the slop when giving best to TIMBERLAKE in the G1 Champagne Stakes last month. The two drew well clear of the third and, back on a sounder surface here, he can make his presence felt. If those odds seem a little skinny for value hunters, then NOTED (ML: 20/1) may be more to your liking. Irad Ortiz rode a perfect race to seemingly land the G2 Bourbon at Keeneland last month, only to get done on the wire and, if the duo had finished on the right side of that head-bob, they’d arguably be a lot shorter than 20-1 today - NR
Race 9 — $1 million Prevagen Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1), (1 mile, turf)
The ninth race of the day is the $1 million Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf for two-year-olds at a mile on the grass. The #2 RIVER TIBER (IRE) has been a superstar so far this year, taking on the best Europeans in England, France and Ireland. The Ryan Moore/ Aidan O'Brien combo has been deadly in these races and he will be tough to beat from a good draw. The Frankie Dettori/Aidan O'Brien duo isn’t bad either and they will team up #8 QUESTIONABLE (FR), who looks to be another huge threat after his runner-up effort in a Group 1 at Longchamps.
Mike’s Picks - 2,8
Looking for Longshots — Long-striding FULMINEO (ML: 20/1) was the meat in the sandwich when squeezed close home in the G2 Pilgrim Stakes at Aqueduct last month. AGATE ROAD took advantage of his clear route on the outside that day, but there’s little between the two and FULMINEO could easily get his revenge with clear passage. Whether that’s good enough to win is another question altogether - NR
Race 10 — $100,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING $50,000, (6f, dirt)
The Friday finale is a $100,000 Optional Allowance race for three-year-olds and upwards going six furlongs. I am leaning towards the #6 ELECTOR, whose trainer John Sadler has lured Irad Ortiz Jr to the saddle and, considering the horse hasn’t raced in a little over a year, leads me to believe this horse is very live on the comeback. The #3 HEJAZI is the morning line favourite, but the distance may be a tad short for him. However, I respect the horse and can’t leave him out. The #2 GHOST OF MIDNIGHT is perfect in two starts and, while shortening up in distance, must be given strong consideration.
Mike's Picks - 6,3,2.
Looking for Longshots — MAN CHILD (ML: 12/1) has been out of action since January when a fading fourth in the G2 San Vicente Stakes. He was a useful juvenile last season, hitting the board in several high-class Stakes contests and, with Frankie Dettori at the helm, holds some appeal at what may be generous odds - NR
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